Archive for the ‘Opinion’ Category

Google and Apple parallels

Saturday, January 22nd, 2011
Though co-founder Larry Page is taking over from chief executive Eric Schmidt at Google, Apple’s co-founder Steve Jobs has had no choice but to hand over day-to-day running of Apple to COO Tim Cook.

I can’t help but to observe a parallel between the “triumvirate” at Google, and the trio at Apple.
  • Eric Schmidt – Tim Cook (the professional manager)
  • Sergey Brin – Steve Wozniak (co-founder, co-innovator, who is more comfortable inventing stuff)
  • Larry Page – Steve Jobs (co-founder, more hands-on founder who wants to personally steer the company)

The triumvirates at Google and Apple

Whether Larry Page can be as successful as Steve Jobs is not proven yet, thought that must be what he’s aspiring to.

Indeed, that’s how companies are run. you need the visionary and the manager.

Many visionaries have tried to also run the company and have crashed the company. But Steve Jobs is an exception and I bet Larry Page believes he is another.

Only time will tell.

Bloggers can outshine the professional analysts too

Thursday, January 20th, 2011

Amateur analysts can do as well as the pros on Wall Street – sometimes even outshine them.

Horace Dediu – a blogger writing from his home in Helsinki – is the most accurate analyst covering Apple Inc.

An ex-Nokia Oyj worker, Dediu has published on his blog the most accurate estimates about Apple for the past four quarters, beating professional analysts from reputable companies like Morgan Stanley, Citigroup and Deutsche Bank.
Horace Dediu as seen on Facebook
This is based on a tally maintained by another blogger, Daniel Tello.

According to Adam Satariano of Bloomberg,

“Dediu and Tello are part of a cadre of amateur analysts who study Apple and post their insights on personal blogs and websites such as Mac Observer’s Apple Finance Board. Their accuracy projecting Apple’s performance — data that can help predict stock movements — is giving investors a free alternative to Wall Street and creating a rivalry with the pros.”

Tello says that “Competitiveness with Wall Street analysts is a natural consequence of us bloggers backing each other as the
‘underdogs.’”

Read the full story on Bloomberg.

Apple stocks drop on Jobs’ absence

Wednesday, January 19th, 2011
As expected, Apple’s stocks dropped 6.15% at 327.05 USD (from last Friday’s close at 348.48 USD) when it opened in the US on Tuesday after the announcement on Sunday of his impending absence. Prices recovered somewhat to close down 2.25% at 340.65 USD.

Steve Jobs last went on extended medical leave from January to June 2009. From the time he began exhibiting signs of weight loss in June 2008 till his return to work in June the following year, Apple shares were down 23.3%.

Apple stocks drop on 18 Jan 2009

Apple stocks drop 6.15% on opening and closed down 2.25%.

Apple's stocks during Steve Jobs' previous medical leave in 2009

Apple's stocks initially dropped before recovering when Jobs returned

Perhaps as an indication of the confidence that Tim Cook gained when he oversaw the day-to-day operations in Jobs’ absence, the shares actually gained some 70% from the time Jobs announced his absence on 14 January 2009 till his return on 29 June that year.

Perhaps there is a slight difference in the two situations. In his memo in 2009, there was an expected date of return – six months down the line – which was fulfilled. This time round, there is no hint on how long the medical leave is expected to be.

In the immediate term, any decline in Apple’s value may be cushioned by the expected positive earnings result to be announced today from the bumper quarter reported on. The strong outlook from the launch of the iPhone with Verizon is likely to provide further support.

Even the clogs for the next versions of iPhone and iPad would have been set in motion by now. The question will therefore be on when Steve Jobs returns and whether an Apple without him would be able to continue on the steam roller of innovation that it has been on in recent years.

Existing technology and setup is more than adequate to avert soccer controversies

Saturday, July 3rd, 2010

Dear Sepp Blatter,

The use of technology to help referees and umpires in their jobs is not new. Other sports like cricket and tennis have enlisted the help of technology to determine whether the ball has gone out of play.

Even a sport as traditional as Sumo Wrestling and as steeped in ritual has integrated the use of video replays into their refereeing workflow.

Sepp Blatter - FIFA President

Sepp Blatter - FIFA President

In Sumo, two wrestlers grapple with each other within a 4.55 m diameter circle, under the watchful eye of an umpire. The first to step out of the circle or have any part of his body (except his sole) touch the ground is the loser.

You can imagine how difficult it is for the umpire to spot when a body part of wrestler brushes the ground, especially if his line of sight is obscured by the bulk of the other wrestler. The task is made even more challenging when both hulks fall to the ground and the umpire has to ascertain which one’s body part touches the ground first.

As a result, the umpire in the ring is assisted by 4 other umpires sitting around the ring, plus another two sitting in a video room who watches video replays whenever there is any uncertainty about the outcome of a bout. One of the 4 ringside umpires is the Chief Umpire who has an audio link with the video umpires, and who makes the final decision based on discussion with the other umpires, and advice from the video umpires.

Most of the time, the umpire in the ring makes the call and there is little interference from the ringside umpires and the video room umpires. Only when there is a very close call and there is strong belief that the umpire in the ring has made a wrong call does the arbitration from the other umpires kick in.

I believe FIFA can very easily adapt this arrangement to Soccer. And the technical setup is already there to be tapped – even for the ongoing World Cup in South Africa.

Instead of having additional referees on the ground with Mark II eyeballs who are subject to the same constraints as the existing referees, put those two in a room with the existing commercial video feeds that are already being shot and broadcast to the rest of the world.

Work out two simple SOPs (standard operating procedures) for the group of referees umpiring the match:

  1. Identify the decision maker among the group, whether it should be the main referee on the pitch, or to appoint one of the two video room referees when a controversial incident occurs.
  2. Delineate the types of occurrence to trigger a video referee interference. I’ve prioritised a list here and FIFA can decide which of these to be allowed to trigger interference:
  • Goal (whether the ball crossed the goal line)
  • Offside (when a goal is involved)
  • Infringements resulting in a goal (handballs, fouls etc)
  • Violent fouls, diving
  • Off-the-ball incidents

For a start, the interference could be limited to the first two types of controversies. For most of the match, there is no need for any interference. Some matches might not even result in any interference at all.

With the availability of video feeds, the setup would not incur much cost or effort, and it should not be difficult or time consuming to resolve a controversial occurence. The existing instant replays soccer fans watch today over the air is usually good enough to illustrate whether the referee made a terrible decision.

Mr Blatter, take a courageous step. Just do it. Don’t wait till after this World Cup. You never know what might happen during the semi-finals and the Final. Let soccer fans enjoy the game for its brillance and fair play, instead of suffering the frustration and outrage of injustice.

Is it a question of technology?

Friday, July 2nd, 2010

For a long time now, people in the soccer community have been wishing for the introduction of some form of technology to help referees on the pitch avoid major refereeing mistakes that can change the course of the game being played, or simply change the final score of the game.

Oh my God!

Lampard's legitimate goal was not awarded

Up till the ongoing World Cup tournament in South Africa, the landmark refereeing oversight has been the goal scored by the “hand of God”. Based on video and photographic evidence, Maradona, one of the best players in the game’s history had pushed the ball into the net with his left fist. The referee, who did not see the infringement, allowed the goal, which allowed Argentina to take a 1-0 lead over its opponent, England. Argentina then went on to win that quarter-finals match 2-1 and eventually won that World Cup in 1986.

FIFA, the world governing body of the game, has inexplicably resisted calls to introduce some form of technology to avert such mistakes. Suggestions include the use of video-playbacks, goal-line technology and embedded chip in the ball. Some even believe the reluctance could stem from the desire to keep soccer interesting by ensuring there is no lack of such controversies.

This world cup has had its share of such controversies. France managed to secure its place in S Africa at the expense of Ireland during a playoff match. Thierry Henry, the captain of the French team handled the ball illegally during the build-up to the scoring of the deciding goal by William Gallas, another French player.

In a single day on 27 June, both the quarter-finals match involved goal controversies which the victims believed played a significant role in their eventual loss of their matches.

In the England vs Germany match, Lampard’s shot at the German goal clearly crossed the goal line after it bounced off the cross-bar, before it bounced out of the goal again. It happened in a split-second and I don’t blame the referee for missing it. But live video replays showed millions of viewers worldwide that it clearly should have been a goal. England naturally believes if that goal had been rightfully awarded, they would have played the match differently and possibly could have won the match eventually.

In the Mexico vs Argentina match, the opening goal by Argentina’s Carlos Tevez should have been disallowed because he was offside – an infringement whereby the player is nearer to the opponent’s goal than any of the opponent’s players (except the goalkeeper) at the time the ball is passed to him. Video replays around the stadium showed clearly that Tevez was indeed offside and the Mexican players naturally remonstrated with the referee to nullify the goal. The referee, despite consulting with his assistant referees, allowed the goal and Argentina went on to score two more goals to win the match eventually.

If you ask me, I don’t blame the referees at all. Some of these infringements happen in the split of a second and it is entirely possible for the referees on the ground to miss it – since they are only human and they have to keep watch in many directions at once and sometimes from a distance. And I’m not sure they are encouraged to change their decisions based on video replays since the practice is not officially sanctioned.

Is it really impossible to eliminate these controversies? Is it really a question of technology? I provide some suggestions to Sepp Blatter, President of FIFA, in my next post tomorrow.