Ben Worthen reports in the Wall Street Journal that:
The punches that Apple Inc. is throwing in its fight against Adobe Systems Inc. are beginning to land, prompting some companies to shift away from Adobe’s video and animation technology and forcing Web designers to work with competing standards.
A US$226 billion behemoth versus US$17.3 billion Adobe – no surprises on who’s going to prevail.
For the moment, the immediate tactical fight is over Flash on iPhones/iPads. For the longer term, the strategic posturing sees Apple defending its sealed garden, while Flash fears the migration away from Flash will spill over outside of Apple’s ecosystem into the general world wide web.
Flash - Some believe it was one big reason why Adobe acquired Macromedia in 2005
We are beginning to see a repeat of the tedium facing web developers and visitors that arose from the browser wars. Different browsers had varying compliance to web standards. Web developers had to develop different versions of their websites optimised for different browsers. For websites that don’t, users will have to use the appropriate browser to enjoy the full intended experience.
Now you’d need one version of your website for Apple iPads/iPhones, and another for the rest of the world who still uses Flash.
Who will prevail?
It depends on whether Adobe can prove that outside of Apple, everybody else will still continue to embrace Flash. For Apple, it is confident that its apps is the future and iPad/iPhone users can get on with their lives within Apple’s ecosystem without pinning for Flash conent.
A stalemate would mean that for a website to reach a wider audience, developers will need to develop multiple versions, website-owners will need to pay for multiple versions, and visitors will need to decide whether to give up on the website or use two devices just to enjoy content from both worlds.
For the moment, Apple’s call to drop Flash seems to be gaining traction outside of the iPhone/iPad environment. In the short and medium term, existing Flash users are unlikely to just drop Flash like a hot potato.
Who prevails in the long run? It’s anybody’s guess.